Offshore wind and sharks: What responsible decision-making looks like when certainty is impossible

Offshore wind sits at the centre of many decarbonisation plans. Around the world, governments are moving quickly to unlock new projects as pressure mounts to accelerate the energy transition.

But in many regions, development is advancing faster than ecological understanding.

In Australia, several designated offshore wind zones overlap with habitat used by threatened and migratory shark and ray species, including areas recognised as important nursery grounds. Similar tensions are emerging globally as offshore wind expands into increasingly complex marine environments.

These questions were at the heart of our recent peer-reviewed ecological risk assessment into offshore wind and threatened sharks and rays in Australian waters, which examined where ecological risks may emerge and how decision-makers can respond when evidence is still unfolding.

The challenge is no longer simply whether offshore wind should proceed, but how to build it responsibly when important ecological questions remain unanswered.

Sharks and rays play critical roles in marine ecosystem health, yet many species are already under pressure from habitat loss, climate shifts and declining populations. At the same time, offshore wind infrastructure introduces new environmental variables that are still not fully understood, from electromagnetic fields generated by subsea cables to potential changes in movement patterns, habitat use and predator-prey interactions. Some impacts may prove negligible. Others may matter significantly for particular species, locations or life stages.

The instinctive response to uncertainty is often to wait for better evidence. But in offshore wind, that is unlikely to be practical. Large-scale energy infrastructure cannot pause indefinitely while science catches up, particularly as countries work to decarbonise energy systems at speed.

The better question may be this: What does responsible decision-making look like when certainty is impossible?

Rather than attempting to predict every possible impact, our research applied a precautionary framework to identify where risks may emerge, which species may be more vulnerable and what information decision-makers need most urgently to guide smarter planning.

Because if offshore wind is to scale successfully, ecological uncertainty cannot simply be treated as a problem to solve later. It must become part of how projects are planned from the beginning.

The greatest risk facing offshore wind development may not be ecological uncertainty itself. It may be when that uncertainty is addressed too late.

Environmental impact assessments are already central to offshore wind approvals. In Australia, offshore wind developments can be expected to trigger detailed environmental assessment requirements under national legislation. But where key shark and ray species overlap with proposed development zones, timing matters as much as scientific rigour.

Many shark and ray species are highly mobile, with movement patterns shaped by season, lifecycle stage, temperature and food availability. Some species may pass through offshore wind areas transiently. Others may depend on nearby habitats during critical phases of their lifecycle, including breeding and nursery periods. Without sufficient baseline information, distinguishing between the two becomes difficult.

This creates a practical challenge for developers and regulators alike. If ecological studies begin too late, important movement windows may be missed, leaving knowledge gaps precisely when decisions on approvals, mitigation and project design need to be made.

For threatened shark and ray species, some of the strongest available evidence comes from satellite-linked and acoustic tracking, which can help build a clearer picture of movement, residency and habitat use over time. Starting this work earlier matters, particularly where projects overlap with important habitats or species of conservation concern.

The reality is that offshore wind developers, regulators and communities will rarely have complete ecological certainty before decisions need to be made.

So, what does responsible decision-making look like in practice?

1. Start environmental baselines earlier

Too often, ecological studies begin after project timelines are already moving.

Where threatened shark and ray species are likely to overlap with offshore wind developments, early satellite and acoustic tracking can provide valuable insight into movement patterns, seasonal behaviour, habitat use and lifecycle stages. This matters because species interact with environments differently over time. A location that appears low risk during one season may become far more important during another.

The earlier this information is collected, the stronger the evidence base becomes for approvals, mitigation measures and adaptive planning.

2. Think beyond individual impacts

One of the lessons emerging globally from offshore wind is that environmental effects are rarely isolated.

Electromagnetic fields, habitat changes, altered predator-prey interactions, vessel movements and construction disturbance may each matter differently depending on species ecology and location. At the same time, offshore wind may also create benefits, including artificial reef effects and de facto refuge areas from fishing activity. The challenge is understanding how these interactions combine over time at a population level, rather than assessing each impact in isolation.

3. Design for learning, not certainty

Perhaps the most important shift is mindset.

Rather than treating environmental assessment as a one-off approvals hurdle, offshore wind projects may need to be designed around continuous learning. Monitoring during construction, operation and eventually decommissioning will be essential to understanding how species respond over time.

In practice, that means accepting uncertainty upfront, while building systems capable of reducing it as projects mature.

Because in fast-moving sectors like offshore wind, the smartest decisions are rarely made with perfect information. They are made by identifying uncertainty early, monitoring intelligently and adapting as evidence improves.

In 10 years, offshore wind developers may look back on today’s environmental baselines as surprisingly limited.

Many decisions are still being made with incomplete information about how threatened shark and ray species move through offshore wind zones, respond to infrastructure and experience cumulative impacts. But that will change.

We expect to see far more sophisticated ecological intelligence built into offshore wind planning from the outset.

Satellite and acoustic tracking will likely become more routine, helping build a much clearer understanding of seasonal movements, habitat use, residency patterns and critical lifecycle stages for threatened species. Instead of relying on fragmented snapshots, developers and regulators may increasingly work from dynamic ecological baselines that progress over time.

At the same time, predictive ecological models are likely to become far more powerful. Rather than simply documenting impacts after they occur, future assessments may help anticipate how multiple species respond to offshore wind developments across changing ocean conditions, migration pathways and food webs.

Importantly, this future will require faster and clearer pathways for field assessments and long-term monitoring. The sooner ecological intelligence is embedded into project planning, the more confidence developers, regulators and communities can have in the decisions being made.

Offshore wind is too important to decarbonisation to stall while science catches up.

But it is also too important to get wrong.

The challenge facing developers, regulators and communities is how uncertainty is managed and whether projects are designed to reduce it early enough to make better decisions later.

For sharks and rays, that means moving beyond assumptions and investing earlier in ecological understanding, from baseline monitoring to long-term tracking and adaptive management.

The projects most likely to succeed will be those that build confidence along the way, with stronger evidence, smarter planning and a willingness to learn as conditions continue to change.

Because responsible offshore wind development is not about choosing between decarbonisation and biodiversity.

It is about designing for both.